Week1: Research question

I have chosen the GapMinder dataset to examine the relation between development parameters and CO2 emissions. 

 

Research question: “How do nations' urbanisation and income levels impact CO2 emissions?”

Increasing global levels of CO2 emissions and its possible causes are at the core of international negotiations on measures to combat climate change. While most developed countries have agreed to use clean technologies and reduce economic activities that add to CO2 emissions, the same binding agreements are a bone of contention for the developing world - especially emerging economies that have high levels of economic growth.

At this stage it is interesting to study the impact that increasing urbanisation has on CO2 emissions, as this is seen as one of the measures of economic growth and therefore increasing levels of energy consumption. A corollary to the discussion is that increasing urbanisation results in higher income levels and higher consumption of energy. This in turn would lead to higher CO2 emissions. 

However, a literature review on the topic threw up mixed results. The finding of some researchers is that while income levels have a positive correlation to CO2 emissions, urbanisation actually has a negative correlation, especially in middle and high income economies. Further studies reveal other factors that have an impact on CO2 emissions, including the stage of development of the economy. 

Therefore my hypothesis is that while higher levels of urbanisation might lead to greater economic activity and therefore higher incomes, they do not necessarily lead to higher rates of CO2 emissions.

   
Literature review

• “Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO2 emissions? A cross-country analysis”; 2010, Poumanyvong, Phetkeo, Kaneko, Shinji, Japan
  This paper investigates the effects of urbanization on energy use and CO2 emissions in context of the different development stages.

• “The implications of population growth and urbanization for climate change”; Satterthwaite, David, Senior Fellow, Human Settlements Group, International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)
  This paper considers the implications of population growth and urbanization for climate change. It emphasizes that it is not the growth in (urban or rural) populations that drives the growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but rather, the growth in consumers and in their levels of consumption.

• “Relationship between Urbanization and CO2 Emissions Depends on Income Level and Policy”; 2014, de Leon Barido, Diego Ponce, Marshall, Julian D., USA 
  The study finds that the urbanization–emissions elasticity may depend on the strength of a country’s environmental policy, not just marginal increases in income, which is in contrast to the idea of universal urban scaling laws that can ignore local context.

• “Carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth: Panel data evidence from developing countries”; 2009, Narayan, Paresh Kumar, Narayan, Seema, Australia
  These study reveals that as these economies have grown, emissions have fallen. The study also finds that in selected panels, CO2 emission has fallen with a rise in income.

• “Determinants of carbon dioxide emissions: Empirical evidence from 69 countries”; 2010, Sharma, Susan Sunila, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University, Australia
  The main findings of this study are that trade openness, per capita GDP, and energy consumption, proxied by per capita electric power consumption and per capita total primary energy consumption, have positive effects on CO2 emissions. Urbanisation is found to have a negative impact on CO2 emissions in high income, middle income, and low income panels.